Explainer: Scenarios for CMIP7
In a publication in Geoscientific Model Development (van Vuuren et al., 2026), the ScenarioMIP team describes a new set of global emissions scenarios that will form the basis for climate research as part of the ongoing phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – CMIP7. Two important changes from the CMIP6 scenarios are that, during the 21st century, the highest global emissions scenario is now lower than in previous scenario sets, while the preliminary estimate of global temperature change associated with the lowest emissions scenario no longer remains below 1.5°C. The new high-end scenario still leads to substantial climate change, and uncertainties in the climate system mean that global warming could still exceed 4°C by 2100.
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