Assessment of Newer Global Emissions Scenarios for Corporate Climate Transition Risk and Target Setting Applications

This study evaluates the latest vintage of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the International Energy Agency, the Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI), Principles for Responsible Investing (PRI), and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). These pathways are key inputs to global climate policy, methodologies evaluating corporate climate strategies, and planning for future climate change. It is essential to understand the pathways and how to appropriately interpret and apply them in corporate climate target setting and risk assessment and management decisions and discussions. This study derives key insights regarding the proper use of global emissions pathway data, uncertainty in emissions transitions consistent with a global temperature, potential economic activity transitions and uncertainty underlying emissions transitions, the attainability of ambitious global emissions pathways, robust low-emissions transition insights, and the robustness of EPRI’s previous technical observations and company insights and guidance—technical principles and limitations of global pathways. Regarding the latter, in addition to informing current climate change conversations, this study tests the robustness of prior insights and guidance derived from evaluating previous vintages of global emissions pathways.

Assessment of Newer Global Emissions Scenarios for Corporate Climate Transition Risk and Target Setting Applications. EPRI: Palo Alto, CA. 3002034775.
Corresponding author: Steven Rose