New release of the socioeconomic projections of the SSPs (version 3.0)

Dear SSP user community,

We are happy to announce the release of new socio-economic projections of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 3.0).

The new release is the result of widespread collaborations within the scientific community over the last two years with the objective to update the basic elements of the SSPs. The release 3.0 comprises new updated projections for national demographic and economic developments consistent with the narratives of all five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5).

The release 3.0 replaces the earlier SSP GDP and population projections from 2018 (KC et al, 2017; Dellink et al 2017; Crespo Cuaresma, 2017). Further efforts are under way to provide also new updated projections for urbanization as well as further information on subnational income distributions and equity. The energy and land use projections,  including greenhouse gas emission trajectories are planned to be updated as well by Integrated Assessment Modelling Teams.

The new projections take into account 1) improvements in the underlying economic and demographic models (eg, improved representation of migration), and 2) are made consistent also with recent national trends, for example, taking into account the effect of the COVID pandemic and other geopolitical events on socioeconomic trends. Further documentation in form of scientific papers are under preparation, and will become available soon.

The data were subject to extensive public and internal review. We would like to thank all who have provided comments during the public review phase. In addition, we’d like to gratefully acknowledge Nico Bauer, Marian Leimbach, and Johannes Koch (PIK) for their support in coordinating an additional internal technical review.

The SSP 3.0 release includes the following projections:

Population by IIASA-WIC (Samir KC, Moradhvaj Dhakad, Michaela Potancokova, Saroja Adhikari, Dilek Yildiz, Maria Mamolo, Tomas Sobotka, Krystof Zeman, Guy Abel, Wolfgang Lutz, Anne Goujon)
GDP by the OECD (Rob Dellink, Jean Chateau, Laura Atarody, Ruben Bibas and Elisa Lanzi)
GDP by IIASA-WU (Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Jakob Gregor Zellmann)

All data is available for download at the SSP explorer.

Best wishes,

Keywan Riahi and Detlef van Vuuren

(on behalf of the SSP teams)

SSP 3.0 contacts:

Overall process: Keywan Riahi and Detlef van Vuuren (riahi@iiasa.ac.at, Detlef.vanVuuren@pbl.nl)
IIASA-WIC POP: Samir KC (kc@iiasa.ac.at)
OECD GDP: Rob Dellink (Rob.Dellink@oecd.org)
IIASA-WU GDP: Jesus Crespo Cuaresma (Jesus.Crespo.Cuaresma@wu.ac.at)
SSP database: Daniel Huppmann (huppmann@iiasa.ac.at)