Report: IPCC Workshop on the Use of Scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report and Subsequent Assessments
Scenarios provide plausible descriptions of how the future may develop. Based on a coherent and internally
consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g., rate of technological change, prices) and relationships,
they are neither predictions nor forecasts, but are used to provide a view of the implications of developments and
actions. As a vital part of the scientific literature on climate change, they are an important consideration in the work
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and provided a key integrative mechanism for linking
the assessments of Working Groups I, II and III during IPCC’s Sixth Assessment cycle.
The IPCC, at its 54th(bis) Session in December 2021, considered a cross-Working Group proposal for an Expert
Meeting on the Use of Scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report and Subsequent Assessments to advance the
scientific agenda associated with scenario development and use with attention to overall scenario architecture; to
consider ways of further enhancing cross-Working Group collaboration; and to consider institutional aspects,
including the relationship between IPCC and relevant IPCC bodies and resourcing issues. The Panel endorsed
the proposal but elevated the status of the Expert Meeting to that of an IPCC Workshop with the consequence that
participants were nominated by Governments and Observer Organisations.
The Workshop, held from 25 to 27 April 2023 in Bangkok, Thailand, brought together 94 experts from 47 countries.
It provided an opportunity for modellers and scenarios builders, scientists from a range of disciplines, and scenarios
users in governments and other stakeholder groups to jointly reflect on the contribution of scenarios to the AR6,
identify gaps, consider innovations, reflect on how to further develop cross-Working Group collaboration on the
use of scenarios, and consider how the diversity of contributors to the scenario-building process could be improved.
This report provides a summary of the preparation and planning for the Workshop, the discussions held over the
course of the three-days, and the outcomes and recommendations arising from the meeting. Annexes provide
further detail on the development of the workshop, the participant selection process, and includes copies of the
agenda and participant list.