Modeling justice without deciding it

A new Perspective in Energy Research & Social Science uses social-choice theory to examine this question across welfare-based and process-based IAM applications.

The paper distinguishes between normative choices embedded in an analysis and those introduced through interpretation of model outputs, and proposes a two-track disclosure framework for making both visible. Instead of seeking framework-independent rankings, it argues for using IAMs to map how policy consequences and rankings change across alternative ethical premises and to identify conclusions that remain robust across them.

One practical proposal is to treat justice frameworks as explicit analytical dimensions in scenario analysis, while recognizing that ethical frameworks represent contested values and not just uncertain empirical futures. The paper discusses implications for welfare optimization, cost-minimizing pathways, effort sharing, distributional analysis and recent justice-focused IAM initiatives.

George, M. (2026). Modeling justice without deciding it. Energy Research & Social Science, 140, 104956
doi:10.1016/j.erss.2026.104956