Researcher in climate scenarios and their uncertainties at PBL
At a time when climate change-related risks are becoming increasingly complex and interconnected, the need for robust scientific evidence to support decision-making has never been greater. In climate science, scenarios are frequently used as means to better understand future pathways and climate risks. These scenarios connect research communities working on the causes of climate change (energy and land use), earth system dynamics and climate science and climate impacts. The EU-funded FUTURA project brings together 40 European research institutes from these research communities to develop and analyse the next generation of integrated climate scenarios and to improve the interpretation and communication of results. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency participates in FUTURA focusing on next-generation scenario development, feedbacks between climate change and human systems, and critical uncertainties using its IMAGE integrated assessment model.
PBL is looking for a highly motivated researcher to contribute to the FUTURA project. Together with the full research team, you will develop and apply methods to quantify uncertainty in, for example, emission pathways, greenhouse gas concentrations, and changes in the physical earth system. We will analyse how these uncertainties interact and how they play a role in decision-making. In addition, you will contribute to the development of new scenarios, particularly considering the consequences of temporal overshoot of climate targets, i.e. how to return to the targets of the Paris Agreement after having passed them. For these goals, we expect you to have strong analytical skills, in particular, in relation to analysing uncertainty. Given the focus of the research, we expect you to have sufficient knowledge about climate change and the main driving forces. We work as a team, but we also expect you to be able to carry out research independently. Additionally, you contribute to other PBL research activities, including model development, scenario studies, fulfilment of project tasks, and publications.
Application deadline: 7 September 2026
