IAMC SWG National Scenarios Study 2

In response to evolving geopolitical conditions, the dynamic implementation of policies at the national level, the gaps identified in our first study, and the feedback received from national modelling teams expressing interest in contributing, we propose a second study that call for NDCs, LTS, and multiple net-zero (NZ) scenarios.

Background
With rapidly shifting geopolitics, impact on global energy and food prices, and varying rates of climate (energy and other sectoral) policy implementation, countries need to reassess both their short term and long-term net-zero pathways.

The creation and communication of national net zero (NZ) pathways are essential not only for Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) progress but also for the Second Global Stocktake (GST). This is because GST serves as a major link between near-term climate action and long-term global temperature goals. Under the Paris Agreement, the GST occurs every five years, which was commenced in 2023 to assess the collective progress towards holding the warming below 2C.

Recently, IPCC AR7 WGIII Chapter 03 informed that they will assess a broad and diverse range of quantitative and qualitative projected futures. To support this effort, they have put out a call for global, regional, national teams as well as community consortiums to submit their published, pre-prints, project/publication related scenarios data.

Sustainable development pathways focus on short-term and long-term climate strategies in addition to moving towards net-zero to emphasize decoupling emissions from economic growth. The correlation has been found to be dependent on the level of development, economic structure and technology used at global, regional and national level (IPCC AR6WGIII, Chapter 3 and Chapter 4, Vishwanathan et al. WIP).

Technical strategies to accelerate the pathways towards net zero can be similar (fossil fuel phase down) and/varied (uptake of non-fossil fuels, electrification) across countries (Pathak et al. under review).

In response to evolving geopolitical conditions, the dynamic implementation of policies at the national level, the gaps identified in our first study, and the feedback received from national modelling teams expressing interest in contributing, we propose a second study that call for NDCs, LTS, and multiple net-zero (NZ) scenarios.

Purpose of the study – Research Questions and Objectives
In response to this effort, we would like to build on the work compiled in the first IAMC SWG National study (NMSF1). We would like to broaden and deepen our efforts in terms of scope focussing on current policies, NDCs, LTS and Net Zero pathways.

Following are the research questions that are the motivation behind the second study:

1. How does decarbonization/ net zero strategies impact emission and energy pathways across countries? What country-specific characteristics emerge from updating current policies, NDCs and multiple net-zero scenarios?
2. How feasible are the submitted national and sectoral pathways?
3. Which sectors need to reach net zero for the country to achieve its net zero?
4. What are the socio-economic, technology, and policy assumptions used in your model/s?
5. What are the gaps remaining in the representation of national pathways in the regional and global pathways?

The main objectives of the second exercise include but not limited to:

i) Improve the scenario data evidence by expanding the coverage of scenarios (emissions, sectors, model types, scenario variables);
ii) Collect multiple national net zero pathways along with CPS and NDC pathways at both economy-wide and sectoral level from national, subnational, regional and global teams;
iii) Assess the national and regional net-zero pathways to explore the mitigation trends at economy-wide and sectoral levels;
iv) Develop national benchmarks for energy and AFOLU transitions, sustainability and equity indicators at country level;
v) Analyse the feasibility indicators to assess the challenges to move towards net zero at country level.

Contact
sarithasv@iima.ac.in
vishwanathan.saritha.5t@kyoto-u.ac.jp