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SMA-SSP Scenarios Workshop
July 16, 2011 @ 8:30 am - July 17, 2011 @ 6:00 pm
Changwon, South Korea
Workshop to Explore the New SMA/SSP Approach – July 16-17, 2011 in Changwon, South Korea
Workshop to Explore the New SMA/SSP Approach
Goal of the workshop: To share what we are learning as we experiment with the new Scenario Matrix Architecture (SMA) and the Shared Socio-ecosystem Pathways (SSP).
July 16, 2011
This session is intended to review the basics. We want to review the history of scenarios and their use, core concepts that have been developed “Framework paper”. Also, we want to review developments from the IPCC WG3 workshop on Scenarios. (It would be nice if their work and this body of work were coordinated.) Finally, this session contains a report on the IPCC WG2 meeting and his presentation of the SMA/SSP concepts.
8:30 AM – Welcome – Hoesung Lee
8:35 AM – Objective of the meeting – Jae Edmonds
8:45 AM – Scenarios in the IPCC and other Assessment Processes: SRES, RCPs, and beyond – Nebojsa Nakicenovic
10:00 AM – Report on the IPCC WG3 Scenario Workshop – Leon Clarke
10:20 AM – Report on the Discussion of Scenarios at the IPCC WG2 LA meeting – Kristine Ebi
10:40 AM – COFFEE BREAK
Integrated SMA/SSP Research
This session focuses on presentations that integrate or coordinate information about the three key elements of the SMA/SSPs by groups that are experimenting in developing SSPs. These elements include:
- Integrated assessment modeling inputs and outputs.
Other quantitative indices. Groups are not limited to integrated assessment modeling teams, and it is encouraged that presentations include multiple presenters if this enables examination of all three elements. However, groups that have worked on any of the elements are solicited. Each presentation should be limited to 25 minutes of presentation with 15 minutes of discussion.
11:10 AM – Experiments by the GCAM group – Richard Moss & Jae Edmonds
12:30 AM – LUNCH BREAK (On Our Own)
Coupling to Climate Model Experiments
This session focuses on the mapping between radiative forcing and climate models. The climate modeling teams have run ensemble calculations based on limits to radiative forcing. The good news is that there will be literally hundreds of model outputs from which to choose when undertaking IAV research. That is also the bad news. We need to hear from people who are thinking about this problem.
1:30 PM – Options for exploring the range of climatic change – Seita Emori
1:50 PM – Discussion
Integrated SMA/SSP Research (cont.)
2:30 PM – Experiments by the FEEM group – Emanuele Massetti
3:10 PM – Experiments by the PIK group – Elmar Kriegler
3:50 PM – COFFEE BREAK
4:10 AM – Experiments by the AIM group – Mikiko Kainuma
4:50 PM – Experiments by the MESSAGE group – Keywan Riahi
5:30 PM – Experiments by the IMAGE group – Detlef van Vuuren
6:10 PM – ADJOURN
Dinner Hosted by IPCC Vice-Chair, Hoesung Lee
July 17, 2011
Coupling to Climate Model Experiments (Continued)
8:30 AM -Options for exploring the range of climatic change – Kathy Hibbard (via web link)
8:45 AM – Options for exploring the range of climatic change – Won-Tae
9:00 AM – Discussion
Options for Demographic and Economic Assumptions
This session focuses on identifying options for demographic and economic assumptions that could be used by researchers in framing the new scenarios.
9:30 AM – Options for representing demographic and economic assumptions to span the range of future developments over the 21st century – Wolfgang Lutz
10:00 AM – Discussion
10:30 AM – COFFEE BREAK
Using SMA/SSP Information
This session focuses on issues which arise in the use of scenarios as an external reference. These presentations should report on research that has used SMA/SSP-type information and on the issues that arise. These talks and discussion should span potential users of SMA/SSP information ranging from global sector modelers (e.g. global agricultural markets) to analysts examining specific place-based activities (e.g. dealing with health implications or episodic urban heat events).
11:00 AM -Utilizing SMA/SSP/CS Scenarios in IAV Research – Tim Carter
11:30 AM – Utilizing Scenarios in AgMIP – Jerry Nelson (via web link)
12:00 AM – LUNCH BREAK (Hosted by IPCC Vice Chair, Hoesung Lee)
1:00 PM – Panel Discussion of Utilizing SMA/SSP/CS Scenarios in IAV Research
– John Agard
– Kris Ebi
– Richard Moss
2:00 PM – Discussion
Coupling across Scales
This session focuses on the practical questions that emerge in moving from the higher-order scales that are typical of the integrated assessment models to those needed to do geographically explicit research.
2:30 PM – Experiments Downscaling Socioeconomic Data to Finer Spatial Scales – Keywan Riahi and Detlef van Vuuren
3:00 PM – Utilizing coarse resolution scenarios as a point of reference in developing background scenarios for IAV – Monica Zurek (via web link)
3:30 PM – COFFEE BREAK
Lessons and Next Steps
This session is a wrap up session. The main theme is to look back on the presentations and see what has been learned and to discuss research needs moving forward to implement the SMA/SSP paradigm.
4:00 PM – The Path Forward – Session Chair Elmar Kriegler
Brief Comments by Brian O”Neill, Keywan Riahi, Kris Ebi, Richard Moss, Ottmar Edenhofer
4:30 PM – GENERAL DISCUSSION
Issues to be discussed:
- The workshops in Boulder, Laxenburg, and The Netherlands
- Key decisions that will need to be made in creating the scenario sets:
- How to model Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs),
- How to decide on SSP assumptions,
- Coordination with non-IAM indices and narratives
- How many scenarios?
- Setting priorities for scenario examination by IAV and IAM researchers.
- Documentation of the scenarios (special journal issue?)
- Communication and Dissemination
5:30 PM – Wrap-up
5:40 PM – ADJOURN