Climate change mitigation scenarios play a central role in studying long-term pathways consistent with global goals. Key numbers in IPCC reports are even picked up directly in global negotiations or national policymaking. However, the distillation of large scenario ranges to policy-relevant numbers can be complex in light of model and database biases, uncertainty of projections and pluriformity of pathways to similar global goals. This talk will discuss a number of recent publications and ongoing work to deal with these analysis issues, among which a method to cluster similar scenarios together into archetypical scenario ‘typologies’, that can unpeel large scenarios ranges. The talk will end with detailing a few frontiers in the context of improving scenario analysis methodology and uncertainty analysis that may help analyze scenario results.

Date: Thursday, June 18, 2026
Time: 15:00 CEST/Vienna time
Venue: online webinar

Presenter:
Mark Dekker
Climate and Energy researcher at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University

Moderator: 
Marina Andrijevic
IIASA