Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2021: Advancing towards climate neutrality
- Type of publication:Report
- Date of publication:November 2021
- Author/s:European Commission
This edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2021) takes stock of recent updates in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term net zero emission targets (LTS) announced leading up to and during the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) in November 2021. GECO 2021 finds that the NDC and LTS pledges stop global emissions growth over the next decades and lead to declining emissions until 2050.
While delivering on these aims results in an increase of global mean temperature of 1.8°C (current policies in excess of 3°C), substantial further actions are needed to limit global warming to the Paris Agreement targets, to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. To achieve this objective, net-zero greenhouse gas emissions has to be reached around the 2070s at the global level. Nevertheless, the announced LTS pledges could be a major step towards filling this gap, since an NDC-only scenario sees average temperature increases of 2.6°C at the end of the century.
In this report, we focus on the transition of G20 countries, which accounted for nearly 75% of global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. For each of them, we assess emissions under three different scenarios: current policies, announced domestic targets (NDC-LTS) and under two 1.5°C-compatible pathways. We analyse decarbonisation drivers and transformation metrics within each scenario, highlighting the policy options to bring emissions in line with ambitious climate targets.