EUCP – European Climate Prediction system
- Time horizon:2017-2021
- Institution(s):Met Office (Coordinator), Barcelona Supercomputing Center – Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS/IPSL and CNRS/CNRM), Stichting Deltares, Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut (DMI), Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH Zürich), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht – Zentrum für Material – und Küstenforschung GmbH (HZG), Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization – UNESCO (UNESCO ICTP), Internationales Institut Für Angewandte Systemanalyse (IIASA), Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI), Sveriges Meteorolgiska Och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI), The University of Edinburgh (UEDIN), The Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of the University of Oxford (UOXF), Kobenhavns Universitet (UCPH), Stichting Netherlands EScience Center (NLeSC).
The European Climate Prediction system (EUCP) project aims to develop an innovative European regional ensemble climate prediction system based on a new generation of improved and typically higher-resolution climate models, covering timescales from seasons to decades initialised with observations, and designed to support practical and strategic climate adaptation and mitigation decision-taking on local, national and global scales. In fact, despite the efforts made to anticipate and mitigate the adverse effects of the weather, the society finds it difficult to contain the damages caused by extreme weather phenomena.
The project objectives are:
- to create an innovative ensemble climate prediction system based on high-resolution climate models for Europe for the near-term (1-40years), including improved methods used to characterise uncertainty in climate predictions, regional downscaling, and evaluation against observations;
- to use the climate prediction system to produce consistent, authoritative and actionable climate information;
- to demonstrate the value of this climate prediction system through high impact extreme weather events in the near past and near future drawing on convection permitting regional climate models translated into risk information for, and with, targeted end users;
- to develop and publish methodologies, good practice and guidance for producing and using authoritative climate predictions for 1-40year timescale.
In addition, it is important to highlight that the system and methodologies to be developed will be sustainable and as newer experiments with climate models become available they will be included in the EUCP framework to incorporate their benefits for decision making.