POLES – Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is a global recursive dynamic simulation model of the energy system and covers all anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions.

It allows to simulate a wide range of energy policies, be they on the demand side or on the supply sector. It displays a high regional resolution and sectoral representation, and provide endogenous simulation of all steps of the energy system by vector and sector: final energy demand, transformation (including power generation), trade, primary supply, international and final user prices.

• The model describes full energy balances for multiple countries and regions covering the whole world, and primary supply for a different geographical disaggregation, as well as energy commodities trade and trade routes.
• It operates on a yearly time step and benefits from frequently updated databases, allowing it to capture the most recent developments of energy markets in various countries / regions.
• Additional modules allow covering GHG emissions from industrial sources; agriculture and land-use emissions are derived from linkages with specialized models.

Figure 1 below gives a schematic view of the POLES model. The red boxes are the main assumptions, calibration and scenario settings; the green box represents the energy balance resolution by country / region and the blue boxes represent the trade and key outputs (demand, supply, emissions).