Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2020: “A New Normal beyond Covid-19”
- Type of publication:Science for Policy report
- Date of publication:January 2021
- Author/s:Kimon Keramidas, Florian Fosse, Ana Diaz-Vazquez, Burkhard Schade, Stéphane Tchung-Ming, Matthias Weitzel, Toon Vandyck, Krzysztof Wojtowicz
- Related Project:Global Energy and Climate Outlook
This year’s edition of the annual GECO report analyses the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global energy system and on the transport sector in particular. The report examines several global pathways; it takes into account the immediate effects of the pandemic and it projects changes brought about by a set of behaviour changes and policy measures focused on low-carbon recovery. These results are compared to the different pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement targets.
An important issue analysed is how some behavioural changes (particularly seen at the transport sector), reinforced by or induced by the Covid-19 global pandemic, could result in lasting structural changes in energy consumption patterns, which could reinforce climate change mitigation policies and measures. While greenhouse gas emissions in this “New Normal” (post-Covid-19 scenario) differ significantly compared to previous projections, the emissions gap towards a 2°C pathway is closed by some 35% in 2030 (9%-35% depending on our scenario assumptions) – thereby stressing the need for more ambitious collective action to maintain global temperature change to well below 2°C.
This GECO edition has been produced by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission; the interdisciplinary modelling toolbox for this exercise combined energy system (POLES-JRC) and macro-economic modelling (JRC-GEM-E3).
The report is published together with regional energy and GHG emissions balances, macro-economic Baseline tables and an on-line interface visualising key results from our scenarios.