Report: Nuclear Energy in Long-Term System Models: A Multi-Model Perspective
Long-term energy system models—including electric sector capacity expansion models—are widely used tools for informing planning, technology assessment, and policy analysis. Recent decarbonization goals and rapid technological change have increased the need to appropriately represent economic characteristics and technical details of energy system resources, including variable renewable energy, energy storage technologies, carbon-capture-equipped capacity, and nuclear energy.
Nuclear power represents about 20% of electricity generation and 50% of carbon-free electricity in the United States as of 2021. However, there are many perspectives on the role of existing and new nuclear in the future U.S. energy system, which is reflected in the broad range of potential contributions reported in the literature.
This report aims to understand how issues central to nuclear energy are represented in long-term energy models. Building on earlier collaborations that focused on variable renewable energy and energy storage, this project convenes four modeling teams that use national-scale long-term energy system models from the Electric Power Research Institute, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to share methods and data, update models, run coordinated scenarios, and identify research needs. Improving tools can provide more insightful analyses and ensure that methods are more transparent.
Guided by inter-model comparisons and intra-model scenario analyses, the report investigates how model structures and input assumptions impact projections, refine model representations of nuclear energy, and communicate findings to the research community and consumers of modeled scenario results. A greater understanding of model structures, assumptions, parameters, and limitations can improve model capabilities to effectively represent interactions under a variety of market and technology assumptions.
This report synthesizes collective modeling experience, reviews the literature, and highlights research gaps—which results in recommendations on approaches for representing nuclear energy in long-term energy system models. Such comparisons can identify robust findings and critical assumptions impacting model projections.
