Global CO2 emissions return to near pre-COVID pandemic levels
On November 4, the Global Carbon Project (GCP) published a preprint of its annual analysis of trends in the global carbon cycle in the journal Earth System Science Data, including an updated full-year projection of global fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2021. Several IAMC members contributed to this outstanding publication.
Global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 4.9% (with an uncertainty range of 4.1% to 5.7%) in 2021,
recovering most of the 5.4% decline in 2020 due to the restrictions in place across the globe to slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID). Global fossil CO2 emissions are now less than 1% below their 2019 levels.
CO2 emissions from coal use are expected to grow 5.7% [4.5% to 6.8%], exceeding 2019 levels by 1%. Another year of modest growth would push CO2 emissions from coal use above their peak in 2014.
CO2 emissions from gas use are expected to grow 4.3% [3.2% to 5.4%], exceeding 2019 levels by nearly 2%, and
putting gas back on its long-term growth trajectory.
CO2 emissions from oil use are expected to grow 4.4% [3.0% to 5.8%], but due to a large decline in 2020, will remain below 2019 levels by almost 6%. If coal use is stable and gas use grows in 2022, then a further recovery in oil use to near 2019 levels would imply robust growth of fossil CO2 emissions again in 2022.
Please, click here for further information and details on the Global Carbon Budget 2021.