Southeast Europe is undergoing a dramatic energy transition, while remaining heavily reliant on coal and aging grid infrastructure. Integrating higher shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) reveals and intensifies existing vulnerabilities without substantial infrastructure upgrades. This study develops a comprehensive grid vulnerability risk assessment for twelve national power systems in the region focusing on structural integrity, operational flexibility and grid management dimensions of these power grids. Grid vulnerability is evaluated through eight key indicators: grid reliability, load profile ramping, interconnection network capacity, forecast accuracy, natural gas share, diversity of renewable energy sources, storage capacity and decentralization. Results demonstrate that Kosovo- with the highest coal share- is the most vulnerable country in Southeast Europe, due to insufficient flexible capacity, limited interconnection and the lack of storage and diversity of renewable energy sources. Albania follows with the highest second vulnerability risk to catastrophic failures in the future due to their dependence on large-scale centralized hydropower without complementary resources. Albania needs system-wide transmission resources to improve its resiliency through flexible capacity, interconnection capacity, storage and diversity of its renewable energy mix. In contrast, Turkiye and Croatia exhibit lower vulnerability risks, supported by diversified renewables and better operational flexibility. This assessment demonstrates that coal-dependent systems lacking operational, structural and grid management resources will be exposed to risks due to increasing variability and uncertainty with higher shares of VRE and external shocks such as extreme weather events and cybersecurity threats to the power grids. Findings inform tailored investment priority areas to enhance grid resilience and support a reliable renewable energy transition in coal-dependent Southeast Europe power systems.

Sargin, S., Daci, M., & Kittner, N. (2025). Electric grid vulnerability and coal-dependent economies in Southeast Europe. Environmental Research: Energy. 2 045003

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2753-3751/ae1037/meta